The Research

The case for the circle, in plain language

We lead with belonging; the evidence is why it's urgent. An honest note before you read: loneliness is a major risk factor for disease and suicide — not the sole cause of either. Every summary below links to its original source.

U.S. Surgeon General · 2023
Read the advisory →

Loneliness was declared an epidemic — with mortality effects compared to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

The advisory, "Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation," found that lacking social connection raises the risk of premature death to a degree comparable with daily smoking, and called for rebuilding social infrastructure — exactly the gap The Fifteen exists to fill.

World Health Organization
WHO Commission →

Social isolation is a global public health concern — not a Western quirk.

The WHO launched a Commission on Social Connection to treat isolation as a health priority across countries and age groups. Loneliness affects young adults and older adults alike, in rich and poor nations — which is why chapters aren't limited to one country.

CDC · Ongoing
CDC on connectedness →

Chronic loneliness is linked to depression, heart disease, stroke, dementia, and premature death.

Public health data connects poor social connection to higher risks across mental and physical health, and identifies it as a significant risk factor for suicide. Roughly 1 in 3 American adults report feeling lonely at least weekly.

Holt-Lunstad et al. · PLOS Medicine
Read the meta-analysis →

Strong relationships predict survival better than many medical factors.

A landmark meta-analysis of 148 studies (over 300,000 participants) found people with stronger social relationships had roughly 50% greater odds of survival over the study periods — an effect comparable to quitting smoking and larger than that of obesity or physical inactivity.

Our own evidence

We'll publish whether this actually works.

From day one, every member completes a brief well-being survey at joining — sense of belonging, number of close relationships, and a standard loneliness scale (UCLA-3) — then again every 6 to 12 months.

Aggregated, anonymized results will be published on this page: real data showing whether the model changes lives. If it doesn't, we'll say so.

2030
15 cities · 225 members
2035
100 circles · 1,500 members
2040
1,000 circles · 15,000 lives